by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
On May 28, 2020, just three days after George Floyd was murdered by a police officer and the country was erupting with sometimes violent protests, progressive data analyst David Shor issued a warning about the efficacy of riots.
“Post-MLK-assassination race riots reduced Democratic vote share in surrounding counties by 2%, which was enough to tip the 1968 election to Nixon. Non-violent protests *increase* Dem vote, mainly by encouraging warm elite discourse and media coverage.”
The research wasn’t his own. He was merely acting as a messenger. But at that particular moment in time, Shor became the enemy for a lot of outraged people. He was accused of being a racist. He apologized but the company that had employed him decided to side with the mob calling for his head and fired him. …
… Getting canceled ultimately worked out really well for him. He gained a reputation as a data analyst who wasn’t willing to soften his message into something the client might want to hear. He founded his own company called Blue Rose Research where he’s been building an electoral simulation designed to predict what is likely to happen over the next decade in American politics. And once again, he has a message for Democrats that they are not going to like.
“At the heart of Shor’s frenzied work is the fear that Democrats are sleepwalking into catastrophe. Since 2019, he’s been building something he calls ‘the power simulator.’ It’s a model that predicts every House and Senate and presidential race between now and 2032 to try to map out the likeliest future for American politics. He’s been obsessively running and refining these simulations over the past two years. And they keep telling him the same thing.”
“We’re screwed in the Senate, he said. Only he didn’t say ‘screwed.’”