by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
With respect to employment, we are stil climbing out of a valley, with more than 4.15 million fewer private sector jobs than in January 2008. At the recent monthly gain of 121,000, it will take until August 2015 to exceed that January ’08 peak.
Even the 7.8% rate of joblessness does not augur well for the incumbent president. Earlier this year I used two economic indicators to forecast whether an incumbent will win: the percentage rate of increase of real consumer spending, and the rate of unemployment of married males, a more stable measure of joblessness over the past 60 years than the official rate. …
… The married male unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in September, from 4.9% in August. Based on preliminary estimates, however, even if the rate of joblessness for married males plunges a full percentage point to 3.7% — quite unlikely — it would not be enough to bring a win for the president.